Polymarket Eyes $400M Raise at $15B Valuation, Trails Kalshi's $22B

Polymarket is in talks to raise an additional $400 million in fresh funding at a $15 billion valuation, according to people familiar with the negotiations, just weeks after closing a $600 million round at the same price.

The prediction market operator is weighing whether to accept the capital at current terms or hold out for a higher mark, one of the people said. The decision underscores the pricing dynamics in a sector where trading volume is climbing but competitive positioning is shifting, with Polymarket now valued below rival Kalshi Inc., which raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in a recent round.

ICE Stake and Trading Volume Growth

Polymarket's valuation has climbed from $9 billion last year, when Intercontinental Exchange Inc., parent of the New York Stock Exchange, took a stake as part of a plan to invest up to $2 billion. ICE now holds roughly $1.6 billion in the company and said last month it has completed its commitment.

Notional trading volume on Polymarket hit $10.6 billion in March, six times the level recorded six months earlier, according to user-compiled data on Dune Analytics. Details of the fundraising were first reported by The Information. Polymarket and ICE declined to comment.

Regulatory Friction Remains Unresolved

The capital push lands amid unresolved regulatory friction. State gaming regulators argue prediction markets fall under state gambling laws and have pursued court action to shut them down, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission maintains the exchanges operate under federal oversight.

Polymarket's main venue remains an international exchange closed to US users, though the company is piloting a domestic app — a rollout whose trajectory will likely determine whether it can close the valuation gap with Kalshi.